Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.399301 0.456628 0.518823 0.591254 0.673230 0.763073 0.868945
2025-08-10 0.304117 0.377572 0.463535 0.571345 0.702721 0.857387 1.053059
2025-08-17 0.231832 0.310652 0.409579 0.542382 0.715481 0.932885 1.226049
2025-08-24 0.185642 0.267254 0.376615 0.533009 0.749926 1.039015 1.452187
2025-08-31 0.149933 0.231057 0.346707 0.522226 0.780213 1.143494 1.691339
2025-09-07 0.128007 0.210234 0.334410 0.533531 0.842263 1.299452 2.023447
2025-09-14 0.103471 0.180819 0.304351 0.513261 0.854217 1.384014 2.262906
2025-09-21 0.086560 0.160400 0.284703 0.505647 0.883882 1.498385 2.562453
2025-09-28 0.072442 0.142013 0.265179 0.494734 0.905901 1.602570 2.858480
2025-10-05 0.064856 0.133900 0.261909 0.511041 0.975993 1.794296 3.323976
2025-10-12 0.056338 0.122385 0.250500 0.510581 1.015719 1.938002 3.723365
2025-10-19 0.050286 0.114625 0.244857 0.519921 1.074460 2.122158 4.217169
2025-10-26 0.045091 0.107965 0.240875 0.533111 1.144894 2.341221 4.812586
2025-11-02 0.037762 0.095171 0.222123 0.513109 1.146387 2.429255 5.169111
2025-11-09 0.031111 0.082537 0.201486 0.485628 1.128210 2.476014 5.450227
2025-11-16 0.026777 0.074568 0.189889 0.476249 1.147500 2.601778 5.909818
2025-11-23 0.023053 0.067331 0.178699 0.465900 1.163008 2.721424 6.371768
2025-11-30 0.020918 0.063850 0.176033 0.475559 1.226142 2.952773 7.106336
2025-12-07 0.017746 0.056768 0.162950 0.457055 1.219227 3.025940 7.495100
2025-12-14 0.015528 0.051933 0.154864 0.449999 1.239354 3.163824 8.049897
2025-12-21 0.013514 0.047236 0.146266 0.440065 1.250577 3.281749 8.571613
2025-12-28 0.012590 0.045768 0.146515 0.454533 1.327722 3.569351 9.538602
2026-01-04 0.011299 0.042785 0.141784 0.454032 1.364461 3.760443 10.288243